Significant Decline in California’s Eastbound Container Volume

News Summary

California has seen a steep decline in eastbound international container volume, dropping to its lowest level in six months. RailState data reveals a 5% decrease from the previous week and a 10% decline from the four-week average, attributed to high tariffs imposed on Chinese imports amid ongoing trade tensions. Cargo volumes at the Port of Los Angeles are expected to fall further, leading to potential supply shortages for retailers and adverse economic impacts on the region’s trade and logistics sectors.

California – Eastbound international container volume from Southern California has experienced a significant decline, hitting its lowest point in six months during the week ending May 18. The volume dropped by 5% compared to the previous week and by 10% compared to the rolling four-week average, according to RailState data. This downturn is chiefly attributed to steep tariffs imposed on imports from China amidst ongoing tensions in the U.S.-China trade war.

The latest analytics indicate that the eastbound rail container volume has plummeted 26.3% compared to the peak week observed from March 3-9, 2025. This peak was artificially inflated as importers rushed to ship goods before the anticipated tariff increases took effect. Following this rush, the trade environment has gradually shifted, leading to a decline in cargo movement.

Tariffs on Chinese imports have reached as high as 145% on select goods, creating significant cost barriers for American businesses reliant on Chinese products. Although the U.S. and China have agreed to a 90-day truce in the trade conflict, reducing tariffs on the majority of Chinese goods to 30%, analysts predict this will lead to a temporary surge in imports as companies rush to stockpile inventories.

Impact on Container Volume

RailState monitors various container sizes on the BNSF Railway and Union Pacific main lines. Since the initial announcement of tariffs in January 2025, there was an observable rush in TEU (Twenty-foot Equivalent Units) volume as suppliers expedited shipments to avoid higher costs. However, post-peak analysis revealed a sharp decline, with a loss of 15,000 TEUs marking an end to this “beat the tariff” rush.

The situation has worsened with forecasts suggesting a 35% decrease in cargo arrivals at the Port of Los Angeles, fueled by significantly lower import volumes from China and reduced shipments from Southeast Asia. Cargo estimates suggest a drop of 28.6% to 85,486 TEUs in the upcoming weeks, with another anticipated decline to 74,925 TEUs shortly after.

Economic Ramifications

The trade and logistics sectors, crucial to the Southern California economy, generated nearly $300 billion in 2022. However, with current tariffs, the industry is bracing for adverse financial impacts. In March alone, the port saw a 15% year-over-year decline in TEU volumes, marking the fourth consecutive month of decreases.

The ramifications of this trade disruption extend beyond container volume. Major retailers indicate they currently have only a six-to-eight-week supply of inventory. This limited availability could lead to widespread shortages, particularly affecting smaller businesses that may lack the resources to weather prolonged unavailability of goods.

Experts continue to express concern over the potential impact of these tariffs on consumers, with anticipated price increases and diminished product availability on the horizon. With nearly 2 million jobs supported by the trade industry in Southern California, these uncertainties pose significant challenges for both workers and consumers alike.

Looking Ahead

Gene Seroka, the Port Executive Director, underscored the necessity for policy changes to alleviate the mounting pressures on manufacturers and consumers. As the landscape of international trade is continually reshaped by tariff implications, stakeholders are urged to prepare for difficult choices in the forthcoming months. Industry leaders remain vigilant, understanding that further disruptions to supply chains could dramatically alter the market conditions for U.S. consumers.

Deeper Dive: News & Info About This Topic

• FreightWaves: Southern California International Intermodal Volume Sees Weekly Decline
• Wikipedia: International Trade
• Trains: BNSF Sets New Container Volume Record at Southern California Ports
• Google Search: Container Volume Decline California
• Reuters: Shipping Volume Will Plummet 35% Next Week, LA Port Official Says
• Encyclopedia Britannica: Trade
• LA Times: Traffic at the Port of Los Angeles Set to Plunge Amid Tariffs Disruption
• Google News: Port of Los Angeles Traffic